In this study we use a
neo-deterministic approach after Blümel (2006)
to explain the influence of climate variations on the interaction between human affairs
and the environmental conditions. Based on a broad evidence from historical climatology and cultural history, we stress the hypothesis:
- Humans are reacting mainly on short-term extreme events or anomalies and the succesion of "bad conditions" and much less
on changes in the mean of climate variables (climate change): I.e. low-frequent anomalies are a stronger predictor for human affairs than long-term climate variations.
As this hypothesis is only related to a "temperate climate" of Europe, we suppose the NAO to be a good predictor for the more low-frequent anomalies
in Europe for the last 500 years. Therefore, the NAO should also be a predictor for historical human affairs:
- Climatical induced events of cultural-history are more related to short-term climate fluctuations (i.e. inter-annual to decadal) than they are
explained by changes in the mean of climate variables. Hence, the NAO of the past 500 years is a better explaination (predictor) for the impact of these
anomalies on the human affairs through its high temporal and spatial resolution.
To falsify or verify our hypothesis, we combine statistical with semi-quantitative and qualitative analysis using bottom-up (inductive) and top-down (deductive)
approaches to relate climate/weather anomalies, human affairs and environmental conditions. Our main focus lays on the Baltic Sea region (high thermal impact of NAO)
and partly on Andalucia (S-Spain, good hygric impact of the NAO) and the Alpine region (glaciers). Data is taken from different historical climatological sources,
long historical measurements and multy-proxy climate reconstructions for the NAO, precipitation and temperature as well as historical and model data for the sea-ice
extent of the Baltic Sea.
